{"id":1519,"date":"2023-12-02T07:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-12-02T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/?p=1519"},"modified":"2023-12-01T19:55:25","modified_gmt":"2023-12-01T22:55:25","slug":"era-milei-el-desafio-de-superar-las-frustraciones-monetarias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/?p=1519","title":{"rendered":"Era Milei: el desaf\u00edo de superar las frustraciones monetarias"},"content":{"rendered":"

El analista econ\u00f3mico Dami\u00e1n Di Pace analiza los desaf\u00edos que tiene por delante el presidente electo.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n

Se viene un cambio de Era. Javier Milei gan\u00f3 en 21 de las 23 provincias argentinas por casi el 56% de los votos. La idea de que el aumento del gasto p\u00fablico hace crecer el consumo, que es bueno para el mercado interno, y que la moneda d\u00e9bil es buena para los negocios, deber\u00e1n ser transmutadas a una herencia que vendr\u00e1 en una caja de regalos con un costo social y econ\u00f3mico por delante.<\/p>\n

Con un d\u00e9ficit fiscal del 3% del PBI, inflaci\u00f3n interanual del 142,7%, pero con una proyecci\u00f3n incremental al corregir los precios relativos de la econom\u00eda, $28 billones en los pasivos remunerados del Banco Central, reservas netas negativas de \u2013US$ 11.000 millones, 50.000 precios regulados, balanza comercial deficitaria con deuda a importadores por US$25 mil millones, Riesgo Pa\u00eds de 2400 puntos, 37 cepos cambiarios y 57 tipos de cambio acumulados.<\/p>\n

Javier Milei ser\u00e1 el primer economista presidente de la Rep\u00fablica Argentina. Tuvimos 25 presidentes abogados, 5 militares, 2 ingenieros, 1 odont\u00f3logo, 1 m\u00e9dico, 1 docente y 1 bailarina. El economista austr\u00edaco Car Menger, en su libro \u201cEl origen del dinero\u201d<\/em>, expresaba: \u201cS\u00f3lo se puede entender verdaderamente el origen del dinero si aprendemos a considerarlo como una instituci\u00f3n social, como el resultado espont\u00e1neo, el producto no planificado de los esfuerzos espec\u00edficamente individuales de los miembros de la sociedad\u201d<\/em>.<\/p>\n

En 1992 naci\u00f3 el billete de $10, y por una d\u00e9cada mantuvo su valor debido al programa monetario de una caja de conversi\u00f3n. Para que se imprimiese un billete de un peso deber\u00eda tener de respaldo un d\u00f3lar por lo cual su paridad estaba garantizada. Balanza comercial deficitaria, devaluaci\u00f3n de monedas de pa\u00edses con los cuales argentina comerciaba, d\u00e9ficit fiscal financiado con endeudamiento externo llev\u00f3 al cierre de esa d\u00e9cada de estabilidad monetaria.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Fuente: Focus Market<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

El billete de $1.000 desde su nacimiento en 2017 hasta hoy, le ocurri\u00f3 lo mismo que al billete de $10. Hoy este mismo billete equivale a 1.03 d\u00f3lares. La moneda en nuestro pa\u00eds perdi\u00f3 la totalidad de su valor adquisitivo.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Fuente: Focus Market<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Desde 1970 en adelante pasamos por 3 unidades monetarias. El peso Ley arranc\u00f3 con un valor de 3.5 pesos ley por d\u00f3lar, para finalizar en 1979 en 100.000 pesos ley, con paso previo por una hiperinflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

En la d\u00e9cada del 1980 y con la vuelta de la democracia se decidi\u00f3 utilizar otro signo monetario como el Austral. Comenz\u00f3 con un valor de 0.9 australes hasta 1991 cuando finaliz\u00f3 en 10.000 australes.<\/p>\n

A partir de marzo de 1991 se sanciona la Ley de la convertibilidad. Su objetivo principal fue lograr una r\u00e1pida desinflaci\u00f3n. Como primer paso para estabilizar la econom\u00eda, se estableci\u00f3 una nueva moneda de curso legal que al menos la podemos dividir en tres ciclos: la primera d\u00e9cada dur\u00f3 hasta el 2001, en donde el peso argentino mantuvo su valor en 1 peso 1 d\u00f3lar. La segunda d\u00e9cada inici\u00f3 con una devaluaci\u00f3n en el 2002 hasta el 2009, y se inici\u00f3 con 3.37 pesos a 3.80, por lo que esta \u00e9poca se denotaban los primeros inicios del siguiente quiebre monetario.<\/p>\n

Para finalizar, nos encontramos en la actual etapa que arranc\u00f3 en el 2010 con un valor del d\u00f3lar de 4.05 pesos finaliz\u00f3 hoy con m\u00e1s de $1000 pesos. Por tercera vez en m\u00e1s de 4 d\u00e9cadas existe la posibilidad de cambio de moneda ante el mismo problema de siempre, la cual se debe a que la inflaci\u00f3n consumi\u00f3 el valor del peso argentino.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Fuente: Focus Market<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Desde 1970 pasa con un billete de 1 peso ley, a otro de 1.000.000 de pesos ley como moneda de m\u00e1xima denominaci\u00f3n, contando as\u00ed 13 tipos de billetes. En 1980 y por otra d\u00e9cada m\u00e1s pasamos de 1 austral a 500.000 australes, contando 12 tipos de billetes, y finalmente llegamos al 1991 hasta d\u00eda de hoy, que pasamos de un billete de 10 pesos a uno de 2000 pesos contando 9 tipos de billetes, aguardando nuevamente alg\u00fan cambio para iniciar as\u00ed otra estabilizaci\u00f3n monetaria.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Fuente: Focus Market<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Los desequilibrios macroecon\u00f3micos acumulados en los \u00faltimos 20 a\u00f1os del Peso Argentino tuvieron su efecto resorte en la microeconom\u00eda.<\/p>\n

En la d\u00e9cada de los noventa, con un billete de 10 pesos un argentino compraba 5 paquetes de yerba que costaban $1.99. Con los mismos 10 pesos hoy se puede comprar 0.0167 de Yerba Mate. El billete perdi\u00f3 todas sus funciones de uso como unidad de cuenta, reserva de valor y medio de cambio.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Fuente: Focus Market<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Entre 1993 y 2023 la inflaci\u00f3n acumulada promedio fue de 52.339%. La manteca acumul\u00f3 un aumento del 86.857%, Yerba Mate 133.066%, Queso 97.851% y Leche Chocolatada 178.195%.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Fuente: Focus Market<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

(Dami\u00e1n Di Pace, Analista Econ\u00f3mico. Director de Focus Market)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El analista econ\u00f3mico Dami\u00e1n Di Pace analiza los desaf\u00edos que tiene por delante el presidente electo.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,48],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia","category-opinion"],"better_featured_image":{"id":1526,"alt_text":"","caption":"","description":"","media_type":"image","media_details":{"width":720,"height":405,"file":"2023\/12\/la-era-milei-e1701471317468.jpg","filesize":133957,"sizes":{"medium":{"file":"la-era-milei-300x169.jpg","width":300,"height":169,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":11795,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-300x169.jpg"},"large":{"file":"la-era-milei-1024x576.jpg","width":1024,"height":576,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":70005,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-1024x576.jpg"},"thumbnail":{"file":"la-era-milei-150x150.jpg","width":150,"height":150,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":5758,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-150x150.jpg"},"medium_large":{"file":"la-era-milei-768x432.jpg","width":768,"height":432,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":47205,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-768x432.jpg"},"covernews-slider-full":{"file":"la-era-milei-1115x715.jpg","width":1115,"height":715,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":81639,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-1115x715.jpg"},"covernews-slider-center":{"file":"la-era-milei-800x500.jpg","width":800,"height":500,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":51028,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-800x500.jpg"},"covernews-featured":{"file":"la-era-milei-1024x576.jpg","width":1024,"height":576,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":70005,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-1024x576.jpg"},"covernews-medium":{"file":"la-era-milei-540x340.jpg","width":540,"height":340,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":29490,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-540x340.jpg"},"covernews-medium-square":{"file":"la-era-milei-400x250.jpg","width":400,"height":250,"mime-type":"image\/jpeg","filesize":18611,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-400x250.jpg"}},"image_meta":{"aperture":"0","credit":"","camera":"","caption":"","created_timestamp":"0","copyright":"","focal_length":"0","iso":"0","shutter_speed":"0","title":"","orientation":"0","keywords":[]}},"post":1519,"source_url":"https:\/\/nuevodigitaldeescobar.com.ar\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/la-era-milei-e1701471317468.jpg"},"yoast_head":"\nEra Milei: el desaf\u00edo de superar las frustraciones monetarias - 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